Megaprojects Hold One in Four Nonresidential Construction Dollars as August Sets Record

Projects valued at $1 billion or more now account for roughly one in every four dollars of U.S. nonresidential construction, ConstructConnect chief economist Michael Guckes told Construction Dive in a report published October 6, 2026 Construction Dive. The comment follows ConstructConnect's latest monthly starts release, which showed megaproject groundbreakings setting a single-month record of $46.1 billion in August 2026 ConstructConnect.

The share itself is not new. ConstructConnect reported the same one-in-four level for full-year 2025 and again for January 2026. What the newest data adds is evidence that the concentration is holding, and that the dollar volume behind it keeps climbing.

What Happened

Guckes told Construction Dive that megaprojects are skewing the industry's headline numbers and are a main reason monthly readings swing so sharply Construction Dive. He described 2026 this way: "This year has been particularly volatile" Construction Dive. He also said the niche a firm works in may be one of the biggest factors in how it performs now and in the near term Construction Dive.

The Construction Dive article does not state the exact period behind the one-in-four figure. The most recent ConstructConnect analysis that defines it covers January 2026, when megaprojects held more than 25 percent of nonresidential construction spending ConstructConnect.

The Latest Numbers: August 2026

ConstructConnect's starts report dated September 24, 2026 covers August and the first eight months of the year ConstructConnect:

• Megaproject starts in August 2026: $46.1 billion, a new monthly record and the third record in a row, after $34.2 billion in June and $34.9 billion in July ConstructConnect.
• Total nonresidential starts in August 2026: $99.0 billion, building and civil combined. That is up $13.6 billion, or 15.9 percent, from July and is the second-highest month on record. The prior 12-month average was $77.7 billion ConstructConnect.
• Year to date through August 2026: $659.5 billion in nonresidential starts, up 20.5 percent from $547.5 billion in the same period of 2025 ConstructConnect.
• Nonresidential building, year to date: $426.7 billion, up 26.4 percent. Office starts, a category that includes data centers, reached $109.2 billion, up 109.9 percent ConstructConnect.
• Civil, year to date: $232.7 billion, up 10.8 percent. Power infrastructure starts jumped to $13.7 billion in August, driven mainly by the $13.0 billion Caturus Commonwealth LNG export facility ConstructConnect.
• Manufacturing, year to date: down 2.8 percent ConstructConnect.
• Residential: $20.9 billion in August, down 14.9 percent from July, with single-family starts down 9.2 percent and multifamily down 8.4 percent year to date ConstructConnect.

Measured against those figures, megaprojects made up a little under half of August's $99.0 billion in nonresidential starts. That is a simple calculation from the published numbers, not a share stated by ConstructConnect, and a single record month should not be read as the ongoing rate.

Background: How the Share Grew

For full-year 2025, ConstructConnect counted $197 billion in megaproject starts, an average of $16.4 billion a month, equal to 25 percent of nonresidential starts spending. It was the fourth straight year of megaproject growth ConstructConnect.

For the 12 months ending January 2026, the total was $217.7 billion, more than double the $99.2 billion of the prior 12 months. January 2026 alone brought more than $26 billion ConstructConnect. Over that 12-month period, commercial megaprojects, led by data centers, totaled $84 billion and industrial megaprojects $64.7 billion. The South census region captured $110.3 billion, the West $64.4 billion, the Midwest $32.2 billion and the Northeast $10.7 billion ConstructConnect.

The two background pieces use different baselines. The February analysis puts the megaproject share before the pandemic at 15 percent ConstructConnect, while the January analysis cites a 5 percent share in 2020 ConstructConnect. Both agree on the direction and on the current level of about 25 percent.

Where the Work Is, and Is Not

Juan Arias, national director of U.S. industrial analytics at CoStar, told Construction Dive that large project activity is centered on digital infrastructure. In his words, the market "appears strong in areas connected to infrastructure, power, advanced manufacturing and data centers" Construction Dive. He said semiconductor-related manufacturing construction rose over the past year, while chemical and automotive plant construction remained below prior-year levels Construction Dive.

There are warning signs. Construction Dive reported that data center planning cooled month over month in August, citing Dodge Construction Network, and that construction input prices rose 1.2 percent in August and stood about 8.9 percent above August 2025, citing Associated Builders and Contractors Construction Dive. Adam Raimond of Gordian told the outlet that slower data center growth would raise questions about where future growth comes from Construction Dive.

Implications for Owners, Developers, Contractors and Subs

• Owners and developers: A few very large projects are competing for the same electrical gear, skilled trades and specialty subcontractors that mid-size projects need. Construction Dive noted sharp cost increases for switchgear and copper wire Construction Dive. Early procurement and realistic lead times matter more in regions with active megaprojects, particularly the South and West.
• General contractors: Backlog is splitting. Construction Dive reported that contractors with data center awards hold much more future work than those without Construction Dive. ConstructConnect has said the trend favors larger firms with the resources and reach to pursue these jobs ConstructConnect. Firms outside that group should not assume strong national totals describe their own market.
• Subs and suppliers: Demand is deepest in power, electrical, mechanical and site packages tied to data centers, chip plants and energy projects. Guckes said "Margin protection is the key," pointing to labor shortages, material price swings and supply chain problems Construction Dive.
• Residential and light commercial builders: Residential starts are running 8.8 percent below the comparable 2025 period ConstructConnect. Headline nonresidential growth does not reflect conditions in housing.

What to Watch

• ConstructConnect's September starts report, and whether megaproject volume stays near record levels or falls back after three record months.
• Data center planning indicators, after the August cooling reported by Dodge Construction Dive.
• Input costs, which economists cited by Construction Dive expect to worsen later in the year Construction Dive.
• Manufacturing starts, which are down year to date even with individual multibillion-dollar plants underway ConstructConnect.

Bottom Line

About one quarter of nonresidential construction dollars is now tied to projects of $1 billion or more, a level ConstructConnect has reported since its full-year 2025 analysis ConstructConnect and that its chief economist reaffirmed this week Construction Dive. August 2026 added a record $46.1 billion in megaproject starts ConstructConnect. The national totals are strong, but they describe a narrow set of sectors and firms, and month to month figures will keep moving with the timing of a handful of very large groundbreakings.

Image credit: Artem Labunsky on Unsplash. Free-license stock photo of tower cranes, not a specific project. Image from Unsplash.

Sources

• Construction Dive, Megaprojects grab 1 in 4 nonresidential construction dollars: https://www.constructiondive.com/news/megaprojects-grab-1-in-4-nonresidential-construction-dollars/832256/
• ConstructConnect, Megaprojects Drive August US Nonresidential Construction Starts to $99 Billion: https://news.constructconnect.com/megaprojects-drive-august-u.s.-nonresidential-construction-starts-to-99-billion
• ConstructConnect, Megaprojects Continuing to Add Market Share: https://news.constructconnect.com/megaprojects-continuing-to-add-market-share
• ConstructConnect, Megaprojects Capture $197 Billion and One-Quarter of 2025 Nonresidential Construction Starts: https://news.constructconnect.com/megaprojects-capture-197-billion-and-one-quarter-of-2025-nonresidential-construction-starts