ABC's Construction Backlog Hits 10-Month High in April 2026, But the Strength Is Concentrated at the Top
The construction industry's most closely watched forward-looking indicator moved upward in April 2026, but the headline number carries an important asterisk. Associated Builders and Contractors reported on May 12 that its Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) rose to 8.8 months in April, based on a member survey conducted April 20 to May 4. The reading is up 0.2 months from March 2026 and up 0.1 months from April 2025 — the highest reading since June 2025.
But ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu characterized the result with precision: the April CBI was "a 10-month high driven by a narrow subset of the membership." That distinction matters enormously for contractors trying to read their own competitive landscape.
The Trajectory: From Four-Year Low to Rebound
The CBI's trajectory over the past five months reflects a sector working its way back from weakness:
- January 2026: 8.0 months — a four-year low, down from 8.4 months in January 2025
- February 2026: 8.1 months — up 0.1 from January
- March 2026: 8.6 months — up 0.5 months, a notable acceleration
- April 2026: 8.8 months — up another 0.2, the highest since June 2025
For context, backlog peaked at 8.8 months in July 2025 before declining through the fall and winter. The April 2026 reading matches that peak — but with a very different mix of contributors.
The Data Center Divide
The most important story within the April CBI is the bifurcation by company size and market exposure. According to ABC member survey data:
- Contractors with more than $100 million in annual revenue carry backlogs that are now 2.2 months longer than April 2025
- Every other revenue category — $50–100M, $30–50M, and under $30M — is reporting smaller backlogs than a year ago
- 42% of contractors over $100 million are under contract for data center projects, compared to just 7% of smaller contractors
- Firms with data center exposure average 12.2 months of backlog, versus 8.3 months for those without — a nearly four-month gap in forward revenue visibility
The South continues to post the highest regional backlog in ABC's CBI series, running approximately 9.4 months in April 2026 — 0.6 months above the national average, sustained by industrial, data center, and energy infrastructure activity concentrated in that region.
Tariff Impacts Are Being Felt, But Confidence Holds
The April survey revealed the clearest picture yet of tariff disruption on active construction projects. Per ABC's release:
- 22% of contractors had a project delayed or canceled in April due to tariffs, up from 18% in March
- 87% have been notified of tariff-related materials price increases
"Contractors remain busy despite these headwinds; backlog rose in April and is now at the highest level since September 2023," Basu said. "While ABC members remain upbeat about the near-term outlook, the share of respondents that expect their sales to decline over the next six months rose to 19% in April, up 6 percentage points since the start of the year."
Despite those concerns, ABC's Construction Confidence Index (CCI) — which measures contractor expectations for sales, profit margins, and staffing over the next six months — remains above 50 across all three components, the threshold indicating net positive expectations.
What the CBI Actually Measures
The Construction Backlog Indicator is the only economic indicator that quantifies the amount of work that U.S. commercial and industrial construction contractors have under contract but have not yet completed. It is derived from a monthly ABC member survey, with each reading representing the prior month's work-under-contract based on the latest financials available. The CCI, released alongside the CBI, measures member expectations for the next six months across sales, profit margins, and staffing.
The CBI is specifically a nonresidential and commercial/industrial metric — it does not capture residential or heavy civil/public infrastructure work, which have their own distinct demand signals.
Implications for Contractors and Owners
For large commercial and industrial contractors with data center exposure: April's data confirms sustained demand concentration in this segment. The forward pipeline for hyperscale and enterprise data center construction remains strong, and the contractors and MEP subcontractors serving it are operating with the highest backlog readings in years.
For mid-sized and smaller nonresidential contractors: The picture is more challenging. Despite the headline improvement, firms without data center work or large industrial portfolios continue to see backlog below year-ago levels. The tariff impacts on project delays and cancellations — affecting 22% of survey respondents — are a real headwind for the near-term pipeline.
For owners and developers: The capacity concentration among large firms creates practical procurement challenges. Competitively bid work that would benefit from the pricing pressure of a soft market may be partially insulated from that dynamic where it overlaps with data center demand for specialty contractors. Lead times for certain electrical, mechanical, and structural trade contractors remain extended.
The Road to 9+ Months
April 2026's 8.8-month reading is the highest since September 2023's 8.7-month reading, per ABC's historical series. Reaching and sustaining backlog above 9 months would represent a return to conditions last seen at the market's 2022 peak. Whether that happens depends on several variables:
- The trajectory of tariff-driven project delays — if the 22% delay rate plateaus or shrinks, backlog could continue rising; if it grows, cancellations will pressure the reading downward
- Whether interest rate reductions materialize sufficiently to unlock stalled private nonresidential projects
- The pace of data center contract awards, which remain the primary driver of large-firm backlog strength
What to Watch Next
- May 2026 CBI: Released June 16, 2026 — will test whether the April rebound was sustained or a one-month outlier
- Tariff impact percentage: If the 22% project-delay figure climbs significantly in May, it signals that the headline backlog improvement is being offset by pipeline contraction
- Small contractor backlog trend: The bifurcation between large and small contractors is the most important structural dynamic in the current market; any reversal would signal broader demand recovery
Bottom Line
April 2026's 8.8-month Construction Backlog Indicator is genuinely encouraging as a headline, but Anirban Basu's framing is the right one: this is a 10-month high driven by a narrow subset of the membership. For contractors with data center exposure and $100M+ annual revenue, the market is strong. For everyone else, it's measurably softer than a year ago. The construction industry in spring 2026 is not a single market — it's at least two markets running in parallel, at very different speeds.
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