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As 2026 approaches, the Rochester, New York real estate market is poised for continued success, with local real estate leaders predicting a robust seller's market that closely mirrors the strength seen throughout 2025. According to recent analysis from the Greater Rochester Association of REALTORS® (GRAR), home values in Rochester have surged dramatically—rising 75% since 2019—establishing the market as one of the nation's most attractive for both buyers and sellers.
"I was having a conversation with a client today about a piece of property I literally grew up in," said Don Simonetti Jr., president of GRAR and manager/broker at Howard Hanna Real Estate Services. "I've known the house for the better part of fifty years, and it's at a number now that even seven years ago, we never would have thought it would be at. But that's what the market is bearing, and I expect that market to continue."
While the Rochester market remains decidedly seller-advantaged, there is positive news for buyers. Mortgage rates, which peaked at 7.26% in January 2025, have moderated to approximately 6.23% today, with forecasts suggesting rates will remain in the low 6% range throughout 2026. This rate environment is expected to help improve affordability—a critical factor given that first-time homebuyers nationwide currently represent only 21% of all buyers, far below the historical norm of 37-38%.
Rochester's average first-time homebuyer age is closer to 30-33 years old—significantly younger than the national average of 40 years—positioning the market as attractive for younger families seeking to enter homeownership.
Looking at seasonal trends, GRAR notes that the spring real estate market has been starting progressively earlier each year. "One thing we've seen over the years is that the spring market tends to start earlier and earlier; it used to be typically March, and then it pushed back to February, and now it's January," Simonetti noted.
For buyers entering the market in winter months, there's potential for improved negotiating position. "If you're out there now and you're looking, don't take yourself out of the market. There's usually the presumption that someone who is on the market in the dead of winter isn't speculating—they have a reason to sell, and there might be more room for negotiation," Simonetti explained.
While Rochester thrives, the broader national real estate market presents a stark contrast. According to market analysis from Mark Siwiec, broker/owner of Elysian Homes by Mark Siwiec and Associates, national housing activity has stagnated considerably.
"Only 28 out of every 1,000 homes in the United States transferred title last year," Siwiec noted, citing record-low transaction levels driven by multiple pressures. Notably, 80% of current homeowners hold mortgage rates at 4% or less, creating a significant "lock-in" effect that discourages home sales in many markets. Additionally, increasing numbers of Baby Boomers are choosing to age in place, further constraining national inventory.
The Northeast and Midwest regions, however, continue to demonstrate robust activity. Rochester benefits from not experiencing the overbuilding boom that plagued Sunbelt markets during the pandemic, positioning it with healthy supply-and-demand dynamics.
For both buyers and sellers, working with experienced real estate professionals continues to be essential. Siwiec emphasized the growing importance of technology integration: "I think that technology and specifically AI is going to be injected more and more into the real estate process. And the consumer will benefit if they align themselves with forward-thinking agents who have figured out how to harness AI on behalf of consumers."
GRAR is advising its 3,000+ member agents to continue providing strong client guidance through clear market expectations, proper preparation, and comprehensive support throughout the buying or selling process.
The consensus among Rochester real estate leaders is clear: 2026 will bring continued price appreciation, sustained seller advantages, likely bidding wars, and tight inventory conditions. However, this represents opportunity—not just for sellers capitalizing on strong demand, but for buyers who remain patient and strategic in their approach to the market.
For contractors and construction professionals serving the Rochester market, this outlook signals continued strong demand for real estate development, renovation services, and new construction projects designed to add inventory and meet persistent buyer demand in one of the nation's most robust real estate markets.
Sources: Greater Rochester Association of REALTORS®, Howard Hanna Real Estate Services, Elysian Homes by Mark Siwiec and Associates; Rochester Business Journal, December 10, 2025
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